Why Is Manipur Demanding NRC Before The Census?

Source: Indian Express
GS I: Indian Society, GS II: Polity & Governance, GS III: Internal Security

Why in the News?

The Union government has deferred the 2027 Census in Manipur amid demands from sections of the State for an NRC to be conducted before the Census.

News in Brief

• The decision followed discussions involving Union Home Minister Amit Shah, Manipur Governor Ajay Kumar Bhalla and Chief Minister N. Biren Singh.
• The Manipur government has argued that the Census should be conducted only after implementation of the National Register of Citizens (NRC).
• Manipur’s ethnic geography broadly divides the State into valley areas dominated by Meiteis and hill areas predominantly inhabited by Naga and Kuki-Zomi communities.
• The NRC demand predates the May 2023 ethnic violence and has become closely linked with concerns over immigration, demographic change, displacement and delimitation.

Manipur’s Ethnic and Demographic Context

• Manipur has 16 districts and is broadly divided between the valley, predominantly inhabited by the Meitei community, and the hill areas, inhabited largely by Naga and Kuki-Zomi communities.
• This geographical division has made questions of population and demographic change politically sensitive.
• Some Meitei civil society organizations and Naga groups have expressed concerns that migration from Myanmar may have altered Manipur’s demographic composition.
• They argue that an NRC should be conducted before the Census to distinguish Indian citizens from illegal immigrants and establish a credible demographic baseline.
• The demand, therefore, goes beyond a routine citizenship exercise.
• It is closely connected with concerns over identity, land, political representation and the changing demographic balance in the State.

Reason behind the growing NRC Demand

Three major concerns have strengthened the demand.

• First is citizenship and demographic change.
  • Organisations supporting the NRC believe that population growth figures may not accurately reflect the demographic situation if undocumented migrants are included in the Census.
  • They therefore want citizenship verification before a fresh population enumeration.
• Second is displacement caused by the ethnic conflict that began in May 2023.
  • Large numbers of people were displaced from their homes and continue to live away from their original places of residence.
  • A Census conducted during such conditions could reflect the immediate consequences of displacement rather than the long-term demographic distribution of the population.
• The third concern is delimitation and political representation.
  • Population data forms an important basis for the readjustment of constituencies.
  • A new Census followed by delimitation could potentially change the existing balance of Assembly representation between the valley and hill regions.

The Demand Predates the 2023 Violence

• The NRC demand did not originate with the recent ethnic conflict.
• In June 2022, the Coordinating Committee on Manipur Integrity (COCOMI), representing Meitei civil society, and the United Naga Council (UNC) jointly sought the implementation of an NRC and the creation of a State Population Commission.
• The issue was further amplified by concerns over population growth in hill districts.
• A 2022 Assembly resolution cited unusually high population growth figures in these areas, contributing to fears about demographic change.
• However, such figures alone cannot establish illegal immigration.
• Population changes can result from migration, natural increase, administrative changes and other factors.
• The demand received institutional attention when the Manipur government constituted a State Population Commission in February 2023.

Myanmar Crisis and Migration Concerns

• The issue became more sensitive after the military coup in Myanmar in 2021.
• Conflict in Myanmar’s Chin State and neighboring areas led to people crossing into India.
• Given the ethnic and familial connections between communities across the India-Myanmar border, migration became a particularly sensitive political issue in Manipur.
• The Manipur government increasingly linked concerns over new settlements, encroachments, and demographic change with migraiton.
• However, Kuki organizations have disputed this interpretation, arguing that legitimate Indian citizens should not be conflated with recent arrivals from Myanmar.
• Thus, the debate involves a difficult intersection of border migration, ethnic identity, citizenship and demographic change.

NRC, Census and Delimitation

• Some organisations, particularly the United Naga Council, have demanded a specific sequence:

NRC → Census → Delimitation

• The argument is that citizenship should first be verified before population figures are used for political representation.
• The UNC has sought an NRC using 1951 as the base year and opposed delimitation before such an exercise.
• The demand has also gained political support across party lines, indicating that the issue has acquired significance beyond civil society organisations.

The Kuki-Zomi Position

• The Kuki-Zomi Council has opposed conducting an NRC before the Census, describing such a move as premature.
• It argues that demographic claims should first be examined using credible population data and that the Census is the appropriate mechanism for this purpose.
• The Council has also raised concerns that allegations of demographic change are sometimes used to question the citizenship of legitimate members of the Kuki-Zomi community.
• It supports delimitation based on verified demographic data.

Significance of Delimitation in Manipur

• Manipur has 60 Assembly seats, with 40 in the valley and 20 in the hills.
• The existing arrangement dates back to the 1973 delimitation exercise based on the 1971 Census.
• A future delimitation based on updated population figures could alter this distribution.
• This has created apprehension among sections of the valley’s political class that their existing political advantage could be reduced.
• Therefore, the NRC debate is ultimately linked to a larger question: who is counted, where they are counted and how those numbers influence political power.

Fear of Losing Political Advantage

• Sections of the valley’s political class fear that a new Census followed by delimitation could alter the existing 40 valley : 20 hills distribution of Assembly seats.
• Updated population figures could potentially lead to a shift such as 35:25 or 30:30, affecting the balance of political representation.
• Thus, the issue involves:

Population → Delimitation → Political Representation → Distribution of Power

Scope for a Manipur-Specific NRC

• Under Section 14A of the Citizenship Act, 1955, the Centre can compulsorily register Indian citizens and maintain the National Register of Indian Citizens (NRIC).
• There is no explicit requirement that such an exercise must be conducted simultaneously across India.
• However, conducting an NRC specifically in Manipur would remain a significant legal, administrative and political decision.

NRC as One of Several Policy Options

• The NRC is not the only option for addressing demographic concerns.
• The High-Level Committee on Demographic Change, announced in May 2026, will examine changes arising from illegal immigration and other abnormal factors and recommend appropriate policy, legislative and administrative measures.
• Its recommendations could help shape a broader response to Manipur’s demographic concerns.

Way Forward and Conclusion

Manipur’s demographic concerns require a balanced and evidence-based approach. Any response must address genuine concerns over illegal immigration and border management while ensuring that legitimate citizens are not wrongly excluded.

The Census, NRC and future delimitation should be based on credible data, transparent procedures and constitutional safeguards, rather than relying on any single mechanism alone. The concerns of all communities must be taken into account, particularly in the context of ethnic tensions and conflict-induced displacement.

UPSC Prelims and Mains Practice Question

Consider the following statements regarding the NRC and Census in Manipur:

1. The NPR is a register of Indian citizens, whereas the NRC is a register of usual residents.
2. Delimitation can have implications for the distribution of political representation among regions.
3. Section 14A of the Citizenship Act, 1955 provides for compulsory registration of Indian citizens and maintenance of the National Register of Indian Citizens.

Which of the statements given above is/are correct?

A) 1 and 2 only

B) 2 and 3 only

C) 1 and 3 only

D) 1,2 and 3

Answer: 2 and 3 only.

Mains Practice Question

Q. Explain how Census, NRC and delimitation are interconnected in the context of Manipur. What Constitutional and administrative safeguards are necessary to address demographic concerns without aggravating ethnic tensions? (250 words)

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