WMO Warning On Godzilla El Nino Effects  In India

Source: Indian Express
GS III: Environment , Disaster Management

Why in the News?

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned that the effects of the ongoing El Nino phenomenon could continue into 2027.

News in Brief

• El Niño refers to the abnormal warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, which alters atmospheric circulation and global weather patterns.
• The ongoing El Niño developed in June 2026 and intensified during the following months.
• El Niño conditions are generally associated with weaker southwest monsoon rainfall over India, although the impact varies across regions and years.
• The phenomenon could contribute to higher temperatures, droughts, food insecurity and rising agricultural input prices in several parts of the world.

What is El Nino?

• El Nino is the warm phase of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a recurring climate pattern involving interactions between the tropical Pacific Ocean and the atmosphere.
• ENSO has three phases;
  • El Niño: Unusual warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.
  • La Niña: Unusual cooling of sea surface temperatures in the same region.
  • ENSO-neutral: Conditions that do not meet the criteria for either El Niño or La Niña.
• Under normal conditions, easterly trade winds push warm surface waters towards the western Pacific, near Southeast Asia and Australia.
• This allows cooler water to rise near the South American coast.
• During El Nino, these trade winds weaken, allowing warm water to spread eastwards.
• This changes atmospheric circulation, rainfall distribution and temperature patterns across the world.

How is El Nino measured?

• Scientists monitor sea surface temperatures across specific regions of the equatorial Pacific, particularly the Nino 3.4 region.
• The Oceanic Nino Index (ONI), maintained by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), measures the three-month running average of sea surface temperature anomalies in the Nino 3.4 region.
  • An ONI value of at least +0.5°C for the required period is an important indicator of El Niño conditions.
  • An ONI value of −0.5°C or lower indicates La Niña conditions when the required duration criteria are met.
  • Values between these thresholds generally indicate ENSO-neutral conditions, subject to other diagnostic criteria.
• ONI recorded warming of around 2 degree Celsius to 2.8 degree Celsius during July-September 2026, indicating a rapid intensification of the event.
• Such values should be checked against the least official NOAA data before publication.

What is different about the 2026 El Nino?

• The ongoing El Niño is significant because of its potential to influence temperatures and rainfall patterns well beyond the current year.
• According to the report, the phenomenon could continue affecting global weather conditions into 2027.
• There is also the possibility of unusually high sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific.
• It refers to the 2014–2015 El Niño, when temperatures reportedly peaked at around 2.3°C above normal.
• Persistent ocean warming can intensify regional climate anomalies and contribute to extreme weather events.
• However, the severity of the impacts depends on the strength and duration of El Niño, background global warming and other atmospheric conditions.

Impact of El Nino on the Indian Monsoon

• India’s southwest monsoon, which brings nearly 70% of the country’s annual rainfall, is crucial for agriculture, drinking water supplies, groundwater recharge and rural livelihoods.
• El Nino can weaken the Indian monsoon by altering atmospheric circulation over the tropical Indian Ocean and surrounding regions.
• Its possible effects on India include;
  • Below-normal rainfall: El Niño can weaken monsoon circulation and increase the risk of rainfall deficiency.
  • Agricultural stress: Reduced rainfall can affect rain-fed crops, particularly rice, pulses, oilseeds and coarse cereals.
  • Water scarcity: Poor monsoon rainfall can reduce reservoir storage, groundwater recharge and water availability.
  • Higher temperatures: El Niño can contribute to warmer conditions, increasing heat stress and crop water requirements.
  • Food inflation: Lower agricultural output may push up food prices and increase pressure on household budgets.
• The report notes that India’s southwest monsoon weakened in late August 2026, despite an initial forecast of near-normal rainfall.
• However, El Nino does not automatically result in a drought in India.
• The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), monsoon depressions, regional ocean temperatures and other atmospheric factors  can influence the final rainfall outcome.

Global Regions Likely to be affected

El Nino changes the distribution of heat and rainfall across different parts of the world.

Northern Hemisphere

• Parts of southern Europe and Africa may experience warmer-than-normal conditions.
• The Arabian Peninsula, the Indian subcontinent and eastern Asia may face above-normal temperatures.
• Coastal Southeast Asia and North America may experience changes in rainfall patterns.

Southern Hemisphere

• Parts of equatorial Africa, southern Africa and the Greater Horn of Africa may face higher temperatures.
• Regions of South America and Australia may experience significant changes in rainfall.
• Parts of Central America and the Caribbean may face drought risks.
• These are broad climate tendencies rather than uniform outcomes.
• Local impacts depend on the strength of El Nino, seasonal conditions and regional geography.

Impact on Food Security and Livelihoods

• El Nino can disrupt agricultural production by increasing the likelihood of droughts, heatwaves and irregular rainfall.
• Its consequences may include;
  • Reduced crop yields and livestock productivity.
  • Higher irrigation requirements and agricultural input costs.
  • Increased food prices and pressure on vulnerable households.
  • Greater risk of livelihood losses among small and marginal farmers.
  • Displacement and humanitarian challenges in regions affected by prolonged droughts or floods.
• The report also wants that Southeast Asian countries may need to prepare for floods, droughts and cyclones in the coming months.

Why is the 2026 El Nino particularly concerning?

• The possible continuation of El Nino into 2027 is concerning because it coincides with long-term global warming.
• The effects of natural climate variability can combine with rising greenhouse gas concentrations, increasing the risk of record-breaking temperatures and extreme weather.
• The consequences may be particularly severe for countries that already face water stress, agricultural vulnerability and limited resources for disaster management.
• For India, the main concerns are monsoon variability, agricultural production, drinking water security, heat stress and food-price volatility.

Challenges for India

• Agricultural vulnerability: Heavy dependence on monsoon rainfall exposes rain-fed farming to climatic uncertainty.
• Water insecurity: Poor rainfall can intensify competition for water among agriculture, households and industries.
• Food-price volatility: Production losses can affect food availability and inflation.
• Regional disparities: The impact of El Niño differs across states and agricultural regions.
• Climate change: Rising background temperatures can intensify the effects of heatwaves and increase climate-related risks.

Way Forward and Conclusion

India should strengthen monsoon forecasting, climate-resilient agriculture, water conservation and early-warning systems to minimize El Nino’s impact. Adequate food stocks and district-level contingency plans are essential to protect vulnerable communities.

A coordinated approach combining scientific research, disaster preparedness and international cooperation is crucial to ensure food security, protect livelihoods and build climate resilience.

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