India’s Carbon Emissions Rise Despite Global Decline In 2026
Source: Indian Express
GS III: Conservation, environmental pollution and degradation, environmental impact assessment
Overview
- The Global Carbon Budget projects a 0.4% decline in global fossil fuel emissions in 2026, while India’s emissions are expected to rise by 4.4%.
- Rising road transport demand, higher temperatures and increased coal-based electricity generation are contributing to India’s growing emissions.
- Industrial emissions increased by 3.7% in the first half of 2026, highlighting the decarbonization challenges in steel, cement and other energy-intensive sectors.
- India must accelerate renewable energy adoption, promote cleaner industries and sustainable transport, and improve energy efficiency to balance economic growth with its climate commitments.
Why in the News?
The Global Carbon Budget study projects a 0.4% decline in global fossil fuel emissions in 2026, while India’s emissions are expected to rise by 4.4%, highlighting the challenge of balancing economic growth with climate commitments.
News in Brief
- Global fossil fuel CO₂ emissions are projected to decline by 0.4% in 2026, while India’s emissions are expected to rise by 4.4%.
- Expansion of solar and wind energy, along with the West Asian energy crisis, has contributed to the projected global decline.
- India’s road transport emissions are expected to grow faster than the past decade’s average annual increase of 3.5%, driven by rising fuel consumption.
- Higher temperatures, deficient rainfall and El Nino-influenced conditions have increased electricity demand and coal consumption, while industrial CO₂ emissions rose by 3.7% in the first half of 2026, mainly due to steel and cement production.
Global Carbon Emissions: A Marginal Decline
According to the Global Carbon Budget study;
- Global fossil fuel CO2 emissions are projected to decline by 0.4% in 2026 compared to 2025.
- China, the United States, the European Union and Japan are expected to record declines in emissions.
- In contrast, India is projected to register a 4.4% increase in fossil fuel emissions.
Reasons for the global decline;
- Expansion of renewable energy, particularly solar and wind power.
- Changes in energy consumption following the energy shock triggered by the West Asian conflict.
- Temporary reductions in fossil fuel use due to geopolitical tensions and economic disruptions.
- However, the study cautions that the decline may represent a short-term adjustment rather than a permanent structural shift away from fossil fuels.
Global Carbon Budget
- The Global Carbon Budget is an annual scientific assessment of global CO₂ emissions and their implications for climate change.
- It is prepared by an international group of scientists under the Global Carbon Project.
- It estimates emissions from fossil fuels, cement production and land-use changes.
- It also examines the distribution of carbon emissions among countries and the remaining global carbon budget.
- Significance:
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- Helps assess progress towards the Paris Agreement temperature goals.
- Tracks global dependence on fossil fuels.
- Provides scientific evidence for climate policy and emission reduction strategies.
Rising Emissions from India’s Road Transport Sector
- India’s accounts for approximately 8% of global emissions.
- Road transport emissions are projected to grow faster in 2026 than their average annual increase of 3.5% over the past decade.
- A relatively wet pre-monsoon period in 2025 reduced cooling demand, resulting in comparatively lower emissions.
- In 2026, higher temperatures and a drier monsoon increased cooling requirements and electricity consumption.
- Government data on petroleum consumption also indicate rising demand for transport fuels.
- Petroleum consumption increased from 34.85% million tonnes to 37.15% million tonnes.
- Diesel consumption increased from 76.46% million tonnes to 80.86% million tonnes.
- This indicates that declining overall petroleum consumption does not necessarily translate into lower emissions from the transport sector.
Unusual Summer Surge in Electricity Demand
India witnessed an unusual increase in electricity demand during the summer of 2026.
Major reasons:
- Persistently high temperatures increased the demand for air conditioning and cooling.
- Deficient rainfall contributed to higher temperatures.
- El Nino influenced weather conditions added to the pressure on electricity demand.
Impact on power generation:
- Greater electricity demand increased reliance on coal-based power generation.
- Coal-based power generation increased by approximately 13.2% to 846,229.29 million units (MU) between April 1 and November 10, 2026, compared with the corresponding period in 2025.
- The increased use of coal contributed to India’s rising carbon emissions.
India’s Industrial Emissions
An analysis by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CERA) highlights the growing contribution of industrial activities to India’s carbon emissions.
Key findings:
- India’s CO₂ emissions increased by 3.7% year-on-year in the first half of 2026.
- The increase was primarily driven by higher emissions from steel, cement and other industrial sectors.
- CO₂ emissions from the power sector remained largely unchanged for two years until June 2026.
- However, emissions from oil and gas increased by 7% year-on-year despite higher demand for diesel and petrol.
Emerging concern:
- India electricity demand growth was met entirely through clean energy for the two years up to June 2026.
- This helped halt the rise in coal-based power generation for the first time in nearly half a century.
- However, the challenge is gradually shifting towards the industrial sector.
- Industries such as steel and cement continue to depend heavily on coal and other fossil fuels.
- Unless these sectors adopt cleaner technologies and electrify their operations, rising industrial output could push India’s total emissions upwards even if emissions from the power sector stailize.
India’s Climate Commitments
- India has undertaken several commitments under the Paris Agreement and its updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).
- Major targets include;
- Reduce the emissions intensity of GDP by 45% by 2030 from the 2005 level.
- Achieve about 50% cumulative installed electric power capacity from non-fossil fuel-based energy resources by 2030.
- Create an additional carbon sink of 2.5–3 billion tonnes of CO₂ equivalent through additional forest and tree cover by 2030.
- Achieve net-zero emissions by 2070.
Challenges for India
- India faces several challenges in reducing carbon emissions.
- Coal dependence remains high, particularly during peak electricity demand, while steel, cement and other energy-intensive industries require significant investment to adopt cleaner technologies.
- Rising transport emissions, driven by increasing vehicle ownership, urbanization and dependence on petrol and diesel, add to the burden.
- Further, heatwaves and rising temperatures increase electricity demand for cooling, often leading to greater coal consumption.
- The intermittent nature of solar and wind energy, coupled with inadequate storage infrastructure, also creates challenges in ensuring reliable power supply.
- At the same time, India’s growing developmental needs require affordable and uninterrupted energy, making the transition away from fossil fuels complex.
Way Forward and Conclusion
India must accelerate renewable energy adoption, invest in energy storage, promote green hydrogen and cleaner industrial technologies and encourage electric vehicles and public transport. Energy-efficient buildings, climate-resilient urban planning and better carbon monitoring are also essential.
The rise in India’s emissions highlights the challenge of balancing economic growth with climate commitments. A comprehensive shift towards clean energy, sustainable transport and industrial decarbonization is crucial for achieving a low-carbon economy while ensuring energy security.
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