Driest Rainy Season Since 2015
Source: Indian Express
GS III: Major crops – cropping patterns in various parts of the country,
GS III: Disaster Management, Environment and Conservation.
Overview
- News in Brief
Photo by Sonika Agarwal on Unsplash - Role of IMD in forecasting monsoon
- Long Period Average (LPA)
- Significance of Southwest Monsoon for India
- El Nino and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)
- Impact of driest rainy season in India
- Mitigation measures
Why in the News?
The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) made a downward revision of its earlier forecast, predicting only 90% rain this monsoon season.
News in Brief
- The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has revised its earlier forecast of 92% of Long Period Average (LPA) and updated that the seasonal rainfall would be below 90% of LPA .
- If this condition persists, India could experience the driest rainy season since 2015.
- Reason for downward revision: Earlier emergence of moderate to strong El Nino, and transition of Indian Ocean Dipole from neutral to positive.
Role of IMD in forecasting monsoon:
- Indian Meteorological Department is the nodal agency responsible for predicting Southwest monsoon (June-September) and Northeast Monsoon ( October to December).
- It follows a phased forecasting strategy which helps in agricultural planning and disaster management.
- It issues Long Range Forecasts (LRF) and ensures accuracy.
Long Period Average (LPA)
- It is the average rainfall calculated for a period of 50 years (1971-2020) and revised every 10 years.
- It serves as the baseline for determining monsoon rainfall whether it will be excess, normal or drought conditions.
- Current Baseline: For the June-September monsoon season it is 89 cm, across the country.
Significance of Southwest Monsoon for India:
- The Southwest monsoon provides nearly 75% to 80% of India’s annual rainfall between June-September.
- Crucially, it enhance agricultural productivity especially the Kharif crops.
- Sufficient amount of monsoon rainfall supports food security, economic growth, while a reduced monsoon rainfall results in crop losses, and inflation.
- Monsoon rains fills up the water reservoirs, rivers, groundwater and lakes, ensuring availability of water throughout the year.
El Nino and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)
El Nino:
- It is the periodic warming of sea surface in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.
- It affects the global weather patterns, which suppress rainfall in India. This results in, lower crop yields, and increased heatwaves.
- Refers to the temperature difference of surface waters between Bay of Bengal and the Arabian sea.
- Three phases of IOD: Positive – West warmer. East cooler( enhances monsoon rainfall, Negative – West cooler, East warmer( decreased rainfall), Neutral – normal sea surface temperature ( no increase or decrease in rainfall, its minimal).
Impact of driest rainy season in India:
- Reduced monsoon rains are concern for agriculture, electricity generation, industrial purpose, availing drinking water, and filling up of water reservoirs.
- Threat to winter Rabi crop which could in turn affect food grain stocks.
- Lack of rain increases temperature with longer heatwave days.
Mitigation Measures:
- Promote drought-resistant crop varieties like millets ( jowar, bajra, ragi) and pulses (horse gram, moong, cowpea).
- Strengthen water conservation and irrigation technique.
- Improve and educate farmers in weather forecasting systems incorporating Artificial Intelligence.
- Provide real-time weather advise to farmers through digital platforms.
- Ensure reservoirs are monitored regularly.
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