Climate risk index

Climate risk index
Source: DTE
GS II: Environment and Conservation

What is discussed under the climate risk index?

New research named Climate Risk Index for Biodiversity, which measures the climate risk for approximately 25,000 marine species and their habitats, was just released.
This new index sets the framework for climate-smart marine life management and conservation approaches.

A data-driven statistical technique was utilised to develop a “climate report card” for each species and habitat, indicating which will benefit or lose due to climate change.
This approach enabled to study of a broad spectrum of life forms across all marine ecosystems from the tropics of poles.
The study evaluated each species based on 12 distinct climate risk indicators under two alternative future scenarios:
- One with fewer emissions
- One with higher emissions
Climate risk factors reflect how a species’ fundamental features such as body size and temperature tolerance meet with past, present, and future ocean conditions in all regions where they are located.
The resultant risk scale goes from insignificant (lowest) to critical (highest) and measures both the severity and likelihood of negative climatic impacts on species.

The study concentrated on two hypothetical shared socioeconomic route scenarios for:
How future society and the greenhouse gas emissions it generates may unfold.
The findings present two quite different views of sea life and humanity.

Findings

The global average ocean temperature would rise by three to five degrees Celsius by 2100 under the high emissions scenario.
In this scenario, over 90% of the 25,000 species evaluated were at ‘high’ or ‘critical’ climate danger.
The typical species was threatened by over 85% of its geographic range.
Photo by Diogo Hungria on Unsplash
The danger is greatest in subtropical and tropical ecosystems, which are biodiversity hotspots, as well as nearshore habitats, which sustain 96% of world fish harvest.
Top predators such as sharks and tunas were substantially more vulnerable than species lower on the food chain, such as forage fishes.
Such predators can have a significant impact on ecosystem structure and function.
The findings point to serious consequences for those who rely on the ocean the most.
Climate risks for fished species such as cod and lobsters have always been higher in low-income countries, where people rely more on fisheries to satisfy their nutritional demands.
According to the Paris Agreement’s two-degree Celsius global warming limit, average ocean temperatures are predicted to rise by one to two degrees Celsius by 2100 in a low-emission scenario.
The study discovered that almost all marine species are less vulnerable to climate change (98.2%).
The danger to ecosystem structure, biodiversity, fisheries, and low-income countries is considerably minimised or eliminated.

The most straightforward way to reduce climate risks is to reduce emissions.
Even with great mitigation, the study reveals that climate change will continue to have an impact on marine life.
The study presents a new tool and index to help decision-makers navigate these difficult concerns.
It can help in developing plans for managing and conserving marine species in the face of climate change, as well as monitoring changing climate risk and gauging progress toward risk reduction.

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